West Nile Virus & New Yorkers and Risk Novelty

"Most people are more afraid of risks that are new than those they've lived with for a while. In the summer of 1999, New Yorkers were extremely afraid of West Nile virus, a mosquito-borne infection that had never been seen in the United States. By the summer of 2001, though the virus continued to show up and make a few people sick, the fear had abated. The risk was still there, but New Yorkers had lived with it for a while. Their familiarity with it helped them see it differently. Most people are more afraid of risks that are new than those they've lived with for a while. In the summer of 1999, New Yorkers were extremely afraid of West Nile virus, a mosquito-borne infection that had never been seen in the United States. By the summer of 2001, though the virus continued to show up and make a few people sick, the fear had abated. The risk was still there, but New Yorkers had lived with it for a while. Their familiarity with it helped them see it differently. " - The Psychology of Security

In short, the novelty of risk posed by West Nile Virus was high in 1999. Within two years, NY people were education about WNV and realized that the risks were higher with small children and the elderly, whose immune system are compromised by age.

Likewise, when a criminal might pose a risk of threat to a community on immediate release of jail, it will take time to determine how large that risk is to vulnerable members of a community. As the years pass on, and the criminal still hasn't struck, then the community's fear will abate. If that criminal only victimizes only a few people, then there will not be as much fear and apprehension displayed 10 years after release when his rate of predation does not accelerate.

While the risk is there for a criminal to reoffend, if his rate of predation is low then most people in the community, having lived with it for 10 years, would realize how much of a threat he really is. Thus it serves the ex-criminal to become familiar with the community into which he is released to help members of that community see him differently (from a stranger to a friend).

This is why people are so shocked when an ex-convict strikes again after a lomg time without going back to his old ways, because it is assumed he was released because he was rehabilitated.