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20110208

Is Egypt Ripe for Democracy?

"Reports from the Committee to Protect Journalists show that 30 journalists and their support staff from both Egyptian and international news organisations have been detained, attacked or had their equipment confiscated in the past 48 hours.

In addition, there are reports that a number of civil society activists have been arrested following a raid on the Hisham Mubarak Centre for Human Rights, the, Egyptian Centre for Political and Social Rights and the Egyptian Centre for Housing Rights." - http://www.transparency.org/news_room/latest_news/press_releases/2011/2011_02_04_egypt

I doubt Egypt is ready for democracy, because the poor has been left out of the picture.

Approximately 25 percent of Egyptians are poor, with 14 million living in rural areas of Upper Egypt (south of Khartoum). They include tenant farmers and small-scale farmers, landless laborers, unemployed youth, and women. Few of them have visited Lower Egypt and Cairo.

If Egypt goes democratic, the fallacy that democracy permits corruption of youth and breakdown of society becomes more unreal and untrue.

Yet democracy does not make a nation strong; rather, it makes the voice of the people heard, providing a politically active outlet for activists willing to vote for democracy with their feet, marching for peace. Indeed, democracy may be a tool of the educated to share liberal ideology in an egalitarian manner but for the poor, it offers hope.

For the poor hope that one day, their children will prosper in a democratic Egypt.

Yet the military in Egypt seek to control this peaceful protest because of the irrational belief that such protests foment violence. In actual fact, the Egyptian military turn a blind eye to right-wing militias' help to "control" the democracy advocates in Cairo.

Why suppress democracy?

So that the average rural villager knows her place as servant to the rich. It also does her family no good to have her go to university, when she should be at home for the good of family and motherhood, despite the wretched conditions of birth.

Would Egypt's activists be willing to emancipate the rural poor? Who is to say?

I wonder how this change in Egypt will impact the rural poor trickling into the cities of Egypt in the name of democracy.

For the poor live in the reality of poverty, just barely getting by without any thought for politics, save for the threat of starvation and barely surviving in an unsafe world.

Update:

February 11, 2011: former President Mubarak reigns and leaves Cairo. Vice President Omar Suleiman announces on national TV that Mubarak has stepped down, and that the Egyptian military is temporarily in control. Jubilant crowds celebrate on Tahrir Square.

February 13: high level military command announces both constitution and parliament of Egypt is dissolved. Parliamentary election is to be held in September.

March 19: constitutional referendum is held. Democratic leaders delay election from September 2011 tp November 2011.

April 13: Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt (which is controlled by its military) orders Mubarak and his two sons detained.

August 3: Trial begins for Mubarak who is also investigated for Sadat's death.

October 9-10: Coptic Christian church is torn down in Aswan after Copts refuse to not display cross. In march from Shubra to Maspero, Egyptian army tries to escalate hostilities, first by broadcasting unfounded rumors Copts were attacking the military. Out of a crowd of 240 Copts,

November 28: Egypt holds its first parliamentary election since previous regime was in power. Turnout high and no reports of irregularities or violence. Members of some parties break ban on campaigning at polling places by handing out pamphlets and banners.

February 16, 2012: Coptic activist gets travel ban in Mespero incident. He calls it politicized.

June 2: Mubarak sentenced to life imprisonment.

July 8: Egypt's new president Mohamed Morsi call lawmakers back into session.

July 10: Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt negates decision by President Mohamed Morsi to call parliament back into session

August 2: Egypt’s Prime Minister Hisham Qandil announces 35 member cabinet comprising 28 newcomers including four from influential Muslim Brotherhood, six others and former military ruler Tantawi as the Defence Minister from previous Government

Freedom House rates Egypt as "Not Free". In their report, it turns out the military was controlling the show until the elections finished in early January 2012. There was regular harassment of NGOs whom the military targets accusing them of being controlled by foreign interests, despite the fact that most NGOs in Egypt are grassroots organizations.

Commentary:

Even though Mubarak had been sentenced to life imprisonment in June, today Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court still remains the pawn of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which had Mohamed Hussein Tantawi as Chairman and chief of state since February 11, 2011. He was only instated as Defense Minister three months ago only to retire on August 12.

Quite possibly Tantawi was a figurehead as Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. He was ordered by President Mosri to retire but retained as advisor. It has been speculated that the military junta plans to step down in exchange for immunity.

Until that time, the fruits of the 2011 Egyptian Revolution are not yet ripe for democracy.



Updated 20121117.0432

Reference:

Wikipedia: Egypt: Revolution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt#Revolution

Wikipedia: 2011-2012 Egyptian Revolution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%932012_Egyptian_revolution

Mespero demonstrations in Octo 9-10, 2011 show Egyptian military in charge
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maspero_demonstrations

USA Today: Train hits school bus in al-Mandara, Manfaloot district, Assuit:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/11/17/egypt-train-hits-school-bus-22-children-killed/1710935/

Wikipedia: Mubarak:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mubarak

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